So Perhaps Now We’ll Take Global Climate Change Seriously?

It has always easy for our current Administration to ignore global climate change as long as it remained an environmental problem. When the realization began to grow that it was becoming an economic problem and a business driver, the Bushies needed to at least acknowledge it, because major corporations were getting more involved. Not that acknowledgement meant they had to address it, because climate change still wasn’t the hot button national security was.

Apparently that’s beginning to change. Tomorrow, the CNA Corporation will release a report written by several retired military officials concluding that global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations and heighten global tensions.

No kidding.

Nearly ten years ago, Thomas Homer-Dixon began studying the relationships between environmental stress in poor countries, particularly scarcities of cropland, forests, and fresh water, and outbreaks of violent conflict, such as insurgency and ethnic strife. Those studies can be accessed at the Project on Environment, Population, and Security and at the Project on Environmental Scarcities, State Capacity, and Civil Violence. In 2003, Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall wrote a paper for the Pentagon discussing the national security implications of “abrupt” climate change which could potentially destabilize the geopolitical environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even wars due to resource constraints including food shortages brought about by decreases in net global agricultural production, decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions through changing precipitation patterns, causing more frequent floods and droughts, and disruptions in transportation of energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess (the report can be downloaded from Grist). Environmental causes such as drought and desertification may be contributing factors to the war in Darfur.

So the only real news here is that important people in government have been able to resolutely ignore years of warning signs.

The CNA report explores ways projected climate change is a “threat multiplier” in already fragile regions of the world, exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states which are the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism.

As part of its five specific recommendations for action, the Military Advisory Board stated that “the path to mitigating the worst security consequences of climate change involves reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.” According to retired General Gordon R. Sullivan, former Army Chief of Staff, “There is a relationship between carbon emissions and our national security”.

Others put it a little more starkly:

“We will pay for this one way or another,” stated retired Marine Corps General Anthony C. Zinni, former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. “We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll.”

The report identifies the potential impacts from environmental threats, including massive migrations, increased border tensions, increased need for humanitarian relief operations, and conflicts over important resources, including food and water. It discusses the military and national security implications on a region-by-region basis.

The report includes several formal findings:

- Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security.
- Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.
- Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world.
- Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges.

The report also made several specific recommendations:

- The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies.
- The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability.
- The U.S. should commit to global partnerships that help less developed nations build the capacity and resiliency to better manage climate impacts.
- The Department of Defense should enhance its operational capability by accelerating the adoption of improved business processes and innovative technologies that result in improved U.S. combat power through energy efficiency.
- DoD should conduct an assessment of the impact on US military installations worldwide of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other possible climate change impacts over the next thirty to forty years.

These come from the Military Advisory Board that is composed of eleven of the nation's most senior former officers and national security experts. It’s going to be interesting now to watch the Bush Administration beat the drums for the Global War on Terror and not talk about mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.